Times/Siena polls found Harris leading Trump by four points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. See the polls ›
Who’s leading the polls?
National polling average
47% Trump Trump
48% Harris Harris
Nate CohnChief political analyst
In the first New York Times/Siena College swing state polls since she joined the presidential race, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by four points each in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin among likely voters. It’s a major shift from previous Times/Siena polls between Trump and President Biden, and another indication that Harris’s entry into the race has upended the fundamentals of this election. Updated Aug. 10
Nate CohnChief political analyst
In the first New York Times/Siena College swing state polls since she joined the presidential race, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by four points each in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin among likely voters. It’s a major shift from previous Times/Siena polls between Trump and President Biden, and another indication that Harris’s entry into the race has upended the fundamentals of this election. Updated Aug. 10
The latest Harris vs. Trump polls
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more. You can filter by state, toggle to show only select pollsters, and choose head-to-head or three-way matchups.
Loading...
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
From Biden to Harris
This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
May 30 Trump convicted
June 27 Debate
July 21 Biden leaves race
Biden vs. Trump Biden vs. Trump +3 Trump Trump
Harris vs. Trump Harris vs. Trump <1 Harris Harris
Albert SunGraphics reporter
Biden’s poor debate performance in June shook up a race that had been relatively stable in the polls. After the debate and the assassination attempt against Trump, the national polling average widened to Trump +3 before Biden announced he would leave the race. As Harris has consolidated support among Democrats, polls have shown her gaining ground. Updated Aug. 2
Note: This page previously showed polls of the matchup between Biden and Trump. The data below is archived as of July 21.
Archived
Biden trailed Trump in the polls
National polling average
44% Biden Biden
47% Trump Trump
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
Biden had trailed Trump in the national polling average almost every day this year, and he had also faced a deficit in the states needed to reach 270 electoral votes. After June’s presidential debate, the gap widened, and as Biden ended his campaign, polls found him down three points nationally and four or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. These averages are now archived.
William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics
Biden had trailed Trump in the national polling average almost every day this year, and he had also faced a deficit in the states needed to reach 270 electoral votes. After June’s presidential debate, the gap widened, and as Biden ended his campaign, polls found him down three points nationally and four or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. These averages are now archived.
Archived
How the averages changed
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Biden; to the right, for Trump.
| July 21 margin | polls | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Trump +3 | 61 | |
| Minn. | Biden +4 | 0 | |
| Va. | Biden +1 | 5 | |
| Wis. | Trump +4 | 9 | |
| Pa. | Trump +5 | 10 | |
| Mich. | Trump +5 | 8 | |
| N.C. | Trump +6 | 4 | |
| Ariz. | Trump +7 | 7 | |
| Ga. | Trump +7 | 7 | |
| Nev. | Trump +7 | 6 |
Albert SunGraphics reporter
In the weeks after the debate, Biden’s position deteriorated in three states crucial to his re-election — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as well as in other swing states where he had already been trailing by four to five points.
Archived
Explore Electoral College scenarios
In the Biden vs. Trump matchup, both candidates had states they could count on, but they needed more to get to 270 electoral votes. There were nine key states in the middle where the vote was close in 2020 or polling was close this year.
Biden 226
Trump 312
10
Minn.
+4
13
Va.
+1
10
Wis.
+4
19
Pa.
+5
15
Mich.
+5
16
N.C.
+6
11
Ariz.
+7
16
Ga.
+7
6
Nev.
+7
270
If the polls had changed, or missed, in Biden’s favor
Biden had a path: He trailed in key states, but a shift or polling miss in his favor would not have been impossible, though of course it was not guaranteed.
Biden 270
Trump 268
10
Minn.
13
Va.
10
Wis.
19
Pa.
15
Mich.
16
N.C.
11
Ariz.
16
Ga.
6
Nev.
270
Biden was within 5 points of the lead in these states.
Albert SunGraphics reporter
Biden’s path to the presidency narrowed as his standing in the swing-state polls dropped, most likely a factor in his decision to drop out of the race.
Archived
How wrong might the polls be?
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the final Biden vs. Trump polling averages.
| Biggestrecent polling miss | ||
|---|---|---|
| Minn. | 6 pts.(2016) | Range of polling miss |
| Va. | 3 pts.(2012) | |
| Wis. | 9 pts.(2020) | |
| Pa. | 5 pts.(2022) | |
| Mich. | 6 pts.(2022) | |
| N.C. | 6 pts.(2016) | |
| Ariz. | 3 pts.(2022) | |
| Ga. | 2 pts.(2016) | |
| Nev. | 4 pts.(2012) |
Albert SunGraphics reporter
Might the polls have been wrong, or have underestimated support for Biden? It’s possible, but his deficit was nearing the edges of the biggest polling misses in recent elections. Assuming the polls did not change before Election Day, he would have needed the polling margins in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to miss by at least five points in his favor.
Archived
All Biden vs. Trump polls
Loading...
Nate CohnChief political analyst
Before bowing out of the race, Biden had been trailing Trump in the polls for essentially 10 straight months.
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
